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I know they’re working for the same master. Since 2012 prices have begun rebounding and in nominal terms prices are slightly above the level they were in 2006 (blue dotted arrow). Makes sense to align disasters with new elections. Summary: National home sales edged back 0.7% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in October. How’d it work out for you last time? I think people are trying to cash in. As we wrap the year, only 1-in-10 are seeing growth, placing housing into acute shortage mode. It is a big club and you are not in it. When the 2008 was half over we were at 4%+ interest rates, more over, we were coming from 5.5% a few months earlier, at that time it was already too late. A primary residence is not an investment, but a home. I dunno. Slippery slope. California housing is still a good buy, if you can afford it, I wouldn’t hold my breath for 2011 prices anytime soon. It doesn’t mater if you elect Democrats or Republicans they are there for themselves and their cronies not for you or me. You forgot about the taxpayers. Jim, I hope that you are right this time. Housing market activity can fluctuate greatly over short time frames, says Bob Dugan, chief economist, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. . No one gives two chits if the State bans Foie gras, but if you think the 1% and Corporate America are going to allow moonbeam Jerry to stick it to them, you have another thing coming. Longer term chart on 10’s right here, story line is that the housing cycles in the past has had a 2% to 2.5% move lower in rates in each future cycle, For that to happen in the future that means 10’s have to reach at base 0.95%, Milked this cow for as much as you can… maybe one more lower level cycle left,, Something is starting to look fishy about how these properties are being sold,, 05/18/2015 Sold view detail $865,000 Public recordsPublic records, 12/04/2012 Sold view detail $570,000 Public recordsPublic records, 06/14/2012 Sold view detail $494,313 Public recordsPublic records, 09/19/2007 Sold view detail $900,000 Public recordsPublic records, 07/26/2004 Sold view detail $520,000 Public recordsPublic records, 01/03/2002 Sold view detail $1,186,181 Public recordsPublic records, 11/08/1999 Sold view detail $280,000 Public recordsPublic records. On top of that, you have foreigners from China, Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East trying to park their cash in the safest markets on earth, and Los Angeles real estate certainly qualifies. If and when the bust arrives, why would the real estate market, hedge funds and Chinese investors, be immune? Getty. The housing market will continue to decrease and slow down. Of course, these changes happen over years. If you’re not, well, too bad. So, where as YOU think that the nation’s debt is exploding — it’s actually CONTRACTING. I’m curious to know the average age of homeowners in California., Most relevant (to us small players) in this article: “Is this spectacular increase in desired value for the Grey/Nazarian estate simply emblematic of a still exploding top-end real estate market or is it an overt signpost that the current real estate bubble is about to burst?”. Bottom line is the banksters defrauded both home buyers and the investors who bought the loans. This not only puts upward pressure on prices by allowing a paycheck to debt service greater principal, but it has caused investors to take on single family homes as investment vehicles as they chase pathetic yields. I have decided to sleep in my car rather than buy at these prices. Oh, and the kicker, they buy these $500k properties, and 2 months later, list them for $575k and says “needs a little TLC, Make it yours!”. Leo, the MGM Lion, and Mr. Ed (the talking TV sitcom horse) retired there. Of course, I paid $535K for it in 2011; if I’d paid $700K, I’d probably have a different perspective. no morality involved. If you see a candidate who was part of CFR (Council of Foreign Relations), stay away from them. There is a reason why the LA/OC market is the most overpriced in terms of housing. God only know what is in that deal. The fact that the economic “recovery” since then has mainly been felt by the 1% also means that the average person does not have far to fall. First 40 years as an Egyptian prince. I see this all around me. Recent wildfires have only heightened the stakes for a state that can’t seem to build enough new homes. LOL. The amount of US Treasury debt held by the public/ aliens is SHRINKING. L.A. County has 10,000,000 people and many are looking to buy in L.A. County cities, not L.A.  With that said, the homeownership trend for California has been moving lower over the last decade: Simply put, this means more renting households and fewer buyers. While sudden spikes can be scary, there’s a fine line between danger and a positive trend. Take a look at 30 years of housing data for the LA/OC markets. While I agree that prices in SoCal are high, even if you see a significant drop, people complaining on this blog will still not buy for the following reasons: 1. they will say never try to catch a falling knife It seems everything they do is to our detriment. The average San Diego house price was $675K last month, up 7.8% since last year. So tank on! If they are from CFR (Council of Foreign Relations) they will pursue the exact policies of the predecesor regardless if they have R or D after their name. As Flyover noted, it’s a big club and you’re not in it, and Republican and Democrat politicians are all members of the same club. Please check your download folder. THIS is why the US dollar is strengthening. It’s been MONETIZED instead. “Their well-being comes way before any bank.”. There are some delightful misapprehensions in your missive. Supply: New Homes Sold per year 4. Here’s how much housing prices have skyrocketed over the last 50 years Published Fri, Jun 23 2017 2:26 PM EDT Updated Fri, Jun 23 2017 2:26 PM EDT Emmie Martin @emmiemartin I was reading all your articles, going, “bahahhaha!” when the economists were saying prices were gong to rise. •The truth about Option ARMs, Pick-a-Pay mortgages, and Alt-A loans. The bank never offered any solution other than a long delay foreclosure and I was better off for it. What’s still propping up the market is the fear for an imminent rate hike, but I don’t think that’s happening because the Fed has simply printed too much cheap money in last few years AND the govt has too much debt to allow even the smallest interest rate increase. •The monster lurking in the shadow inventory, •The true picture of the California Housing Market, •Short sales and foreclosure made up 52 percent of all recent SoCal home sales, •Corona Del Mar most expensive zip code foreclosure examples, •Global housing bubbles collapse like dominoes. Housing Bubble Example Graph 2. <<. It’s for a Bel Air mansion. Enter your email address to receive updates from Dr. Housing Bubble: The California housing trend: Taking a close look at 30 years of housing data. I guess they have no choice and cannot wait. If you want change elect the candidate which is most shreaded by the MSM because they are not part of the CFR. john… My wife and I can live anywhere we want and guess what boring, always freezing by the beach and to many lets say suspect people wondering around the beach, it was and never will be our choice. Our third prediction for the California housing market in 2021 … Which is why he never had a chance. Ron Paul is not part of the establishment and for that reason he had zero chance for winning. THE 99 percent would have their asses in jail if they tried what the 1 percent got away with! No industrialist or banker who bought a 30 million apt in NY is making decisions based on what is best for overall America? Their fear is justified and understandable because how in the world can you call price tripling of one’s biggest purchase in a short 20 years NORMAL. And it won’t take a large rate increase. Not Chicago. What you wrote is facinating! You have a home. San Diego, California. Nothing just stays the same the same (?) In a normal situation where housing was affordable relative to incomes that wouldn’t pose a problem but in a situation where home ownership was heavily stratified by age and where property taxes have been grandfathered for 40 years it could pose a huge problem. At most the only thing they might achieve is the elimination of just enough of the exemptions for ownership transfers for commercial property that have prevented reassessments to claim a victory. Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 If there are so many jobs posted, why isn’t there an insane amount of hiring going on right now? The governement is by the FED and for the FED. I’m self-employed and take a lot of deductions so I only qualify for a $350k loan with a 100k down payment. This trend started in 2005, while home prices held a plateau up until 2007. I see a whole bunch of people buying these housing who just honestly cant afford them. It does not really make sense to bring the topic of minimum wage when it comes to so cal housing. Infested with asbestos, needs a new roof, unpermitted additions, and just 1100 sq/ft. Building a market on low inventory. The current level of housing starts as of October 2020 is 1,530.00 thousand homes. But if you want to buy, here is a nice and bright home in Highland Park: This place sold for $90,000 in 1986 (the current tax assessment is $165,228). Despite mainstream media persistent noise for an increasingly negative outlook for US house prices for a multitude of reasons, the ms-perception for which is supported by recent sharp drop in house price inflation to +4.7%, instead the continuing reality is for US house prices just oscillating around the central trend forecast of 10% per year as the long-term trend trajectory remains in tact for a rise of over 30% by early 2016. Maybe eliminate oo change 1031 exchange would be a start: It could grow at a 2.55% pace in the next six months faster than the national 1.59 report from Mercury News. So barring another financial or economic catastrophe like the one we saw just a few years ago, I can’t really come up with a model as to how you see large price declines in these prime markets. can you elaborate on the economy in the US as a consequence of all these? I wouldn’t want to live there. Also, incomes in NYC are simply better than in L.A. and Orange County. The above mantra needs to be chanted 10,000 times each day for it to sink in. You know why? This is almost exactly what happened in the last bubble.. An we all know how that worked out. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Romney and McCain are all part of the same gang. The LA/OC market is the epitome of this. If only I could borrow $25M to be able to do this once…. The past is the past, I want to enjoy what I have now and won’t look back, except I’ve learned a VERY expensive lesson. Republicans, Democrats? And the Attorney General is sleeping at the wheel. There is also the issue of long term care. Jobs are posted to get around Equal Opportunity laws and to get a sense of the competition. Left, right, left, right, the sheeple march over the cliff. 4) awesome companies like qcom n now illumina. It is fascinating from a psychological standpoint that today, many think that California housing is a simple and safe bet. •Lehman Brothers: The Rise and Fall of Lehman Brothers, •Housing Apocalypse Tomorrow – Homes with no mortgage payment in two years, •The other CA Bubble - Canada Housing Bubble ripe for popping, History of a Housing Bubble - LA Times Archive From So if you are trying to make sense of the news under the illusion that these people are like the rest of us…. From the peak in 2006 to the bottom in 2012, inflation-adjusted housing prices lost 35.3% nationwide with some areas like Florida and Nevada losing 50% or more. These factors will militate against a huge run up in inventory like what we saw in the previous down turn. The MSM in the hands of few guys shread him to pieces as anyone else who is not part of the club. Take New York City: You notice how prices didn’t take a massive hit like the LA/OC area. The bottom line, somewhat surprisingly, is that the average annual price increase for U.S. homes from 1900 to 2012 was only 0.1% /year after inflation! Let’s see how does the housing market do in next few years..? Add to that the decidedly upward trend in interest rates, and the sellers market could end pretty quickly! Did you miss the part where DG claimed to purchase a home in cash the year after he defaulted on the loan? A few hours later he emailed me a chart he’d whipped together, splicing 20 years of Canadian inflation-adjusted house prices onto his data for the U.S. housing market going back to 1890. But the Progressives will try to raise rates if they lose big in 2016. Also, it is easy to forget that 1,000,000+ Californians lost their homes via foreclosure and many today are still underwater even with the recent boom in home prices. You defaulted because you were underwater. Does that count? Across all pundit channels — no-one has the moxy to figure out something as obvious as this. Had the banksters done business prudently, home prices would have been much lower when you bought, and you would not have wound up underwater. 2) 0-care is COLLAPSING the creation of new money. Do they start slashing prices, or do they pull their place off the market and hope for the next peak? Profits only reached $35,000 for those who owned their homes for 11–15 years—possibly because they had more value to catch up on after the 2008 housing bubble. Also, psychopaths are attracted to positions of power and care only about their own gain. Should the Fedsury begin to hike interest rates, the long market will be sitting inside the US Federal Reserve Bank. I feel really bad but have to let it go. Meanwhile, back in China, Uncle Yang and his prison gang are still making millions, even though the Chinese RE market is imploding. But sadly it’s all tied to politics. Just try to predict their moves, because you are in this game just for yourself. On this blog how bad a drop will occur is the argument. The California housing market took a breather in October as home sales and price gains declined as compared to the previous month but still recorded double-digit increases from a year ago.Despite a minor decline in the off-season, the consistent V-shaped recovery points to the housing strength for several more months. Yet some see no problem buying a $700,000 home requiring a $140,000 down payment to get down to a modest monthly mortgage payment. Housing Starts: New Privately Owned Units - … If I type in all caps, is my point more important? I know, it’s poison, but until we vote the idiots out of Washington, it can only get worse. IT is the opposite here, on the Eastside (Bellevue, WA). Bubble on the topic of the CPI and its largest component “Owner’s Equivalent Rent,” I wanted to introduce now on this newer thread the the Chapwood Index, which reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation) has been averaging more than 10% increase a year for the last four years. It certainly seems that way, with prices in this area reaching an all-time high. What is more likely to happen, in my opinion, is that in the next recession, you’ll see the normal rate of defaults and foreclosure, and everyone else will sit tight and ride it through, meaning, unless you lose your job and have depleted your savings, you’re going to hang on to your house for as long as you can because you put something like $200-500k into it. 2018… no bust yet?!! would bail out the banks and they would hold on to the repos and leave them vacant or let people stay in their homes? This trend started in 2005, while home prices held a plateau up until 2007. Home prices are falling from 350 to 300/sf, inventory is increasing in the last 6 months. The Fed in very interested in raising rates. You can see that the trend is definitely heading lower. “Bottom line is the banksters defrauded both home buyers and the investors who bought the loans.”. Historical Toronto Housing Graph Index: 1. In a previous article from Dr. The population near the California coast is only going to increase as well. All counties of the San Francisco Bay Area except Solano experienced year-over-year sales gain in double-digit percentages with Santa Clara posting the highest sales growth of 32.4% followed by San Mateo (29.1%). If its a San Francisco house there could well be estate taxes to be paid too as a 1975 $100,000 plus property could fetch over $3 million today!

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